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The operation of the national economy remained stable and recovered in July

2020.09.08   14:04

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on August 14, China's production and supply continued to recover in July, the market demand gradually recovered, the employment price was generally stable, the new kinetic energy grew and expanded, the market confidence tended to strengthen, and the national economy maintained a stable recovery trend.

In terms of production, in July, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year, the growth rate was the same as that in June, and the growth rate was 0.98% month on month. In terms of product output, the output of digging and earth moving machinery, automobiles, industrial robots, smart phones and microcomputers increased by 46.1%, 26.8%, 19.4%, 19.2% and 17.8% respectively. In the same month, the national service industry production index increased by 3.5% year-on-year, 1.2 percentage points higher than that in June.

In terms of demand, in July, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, 0.7 percentage points narrower than that in June, with a month on month growth rate of 0.85%, in which the monthly growth rate of commodity retail turned from negative to positive. Over the same period, China's fixed assets investment increased by 4.85% month on month.

In novel coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control and economic and social development, a series of policy measures were taken since July. The positive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy continued to exert remarkable effect, and the economy overcame the adverse effects of the epidemic and flood, and continued to maintain a stable recovery trend, Fu Linghui, spokesman of the State Statistics Bureau, said at a news conference held by the State Council on new year. The indicators should continue to warm up. However, it should also be noted that the current international situation is complex and severe, and the global epidemic is still spreading; domestic structural, institutional and cyclical contradictions coexist, and development is facing many difficulties and challenges. In the next stage, we should firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, deepen supply side structural reform, intensify reform and opening up, further activate market players, strive to smooth economic circulation, and strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development.

"In July, affected by the southern flood weather on the public utilities industry, the domestic economic recovery slowed down, but the overall recovery trend continued." Kou Ning, general manager of the macro strategy Department of Yide futures, told the futures daily that the pace of recovery of the manufacturing industry has accelerated, but the structural differentiation of the industry is still obvious. The high-tech industry and the midstream manufacturing industry supported by infrastructure demand have maintained a good recovery momentum, while the food and textile industries, which are greatly affected by the epidemic, are still recovering slowly. In addition, the growth of real estate investment further accelerated in July. The growth of infrastructure investment represented by transportation continued to improve, and the resilience of domestic demand remained strong. It is expected that the steady growth policy with infrastructure investment as the main support will accelerate the implementation and take effect with the influence of rainy weather in southern China fading.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, Corning said that demand will replace supply as the main factor supporting economic growth, commodity demand is expected to be better, and the price of industrial products is expected to continue to rise.

"At present, there are still repeated risks of the epidemic, and the approach of the US election has also increased the uncertainty of the peripheral political level. It is expected that the probability of further tightening of the policy environment will be small, and the repeated economic recovery and other factors will provide certain trading opportunities for the medium and long-term bond market." CCB futures macro financial team researcher Huang Wenxin said.

                                                                                                                   By Shen siqi

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